Bull playbook back in action The chase by Frances Horodelski:After six days of rallies, and again within spitting distance of all-time highs, will the S&P be able to make it seven in a row and surpass those highs. The bullish playbook is back in play. The chase list today continues to include all things M&A as the battle for Allergan continues, the papers focus on the possibilities of a Newmont-Barrick tie-up and year-to-date there has $1.2 trillion worth of deals pending, completed or proposed (9,131 deals around the world). In North America, the deal value is 55.7% year over year. We'll also be focused on the earnings scene with names like Procter & Gamble, Celestica and Dow Chemicals (all three beating on the top line and missing on the bottom line). P&G confirmed its outlook; Celestica's next quarter outlook misses expectations brackets guidance has revenue mid-point outlook below the Street with earnings right in the middle of the street's range. Boeing, the second worst performing Dow stocks this year after Goldman Sachs reported better than expected results a few minutes ago. The record so far this earnings season is a 63% beat ratio on earnings and 51% on revenue with the blended earnings growth rate at 1.1% while revenue is higher by 2.6% (according to Thomson Reuters). One list has almost 40 U.S. companies reporting today including Apple after the close. Question? When will the IRS, the CRA, the tax commissioner of Bermuda and the global community stop and make a change when it comes to corporate taxation. In the Allergan-Valeant battle, I notice that the benefit of the deal is a high single digit tax rate for the combined company! Whose benefit? We'll also be watching outside of Canada as NATO moves some 600 troops into Poland. Headline had a tremendous and lively discussion last evening with the Russian ambassador to Canada where he reacts to the expulsion of a Canadian diplomat which he says is probably "retaliation". He also stated that Russia has "absolutely not" annexed Crimea. It is available at bnn.ca. As well, the Chinese HSBC preliminary PMI number for April came in at a below-expansion 48.3, in line with estimates and above March. Things I'm watching - breadth (bullish), insiders (bullish), sentiment (AAII bulls less than 30%), put/call ratio (bullish), valuation (okay), Citi economic surprising index (turning up), port of Los Angeles saw the largest jump in container ship activity in March in seven years +34% (bullish), divergences (negative), emerging markets (at downtrend resistance), valuation (only okay), calendar (sell in May, election year), China (continues soft), Ukraine (spreading tensions - negative). And just in case you thought the bears were tamed here's a headline "Prem Watsa: Monstrous real estate and construction bubble in China". Finally, I'll leave you with just a glimmer of a thought - around the world banks appear to be reducing their exposure to F.I.C.C. (fixed income, commodities and currencies) due to capital requirements. What will the implications be as liquidity gets reduced and volatility is heightened? Is this the epitome of bad timing or does it mean equities will be the place to be? Just wondering. Have a good day and markets start with a bit of red on the futures. The smart money index has turned higher and I'm watching the S&P 500 high at 1890.90. Every morning Business Day Host Frances Horodelski writes a "chase note" to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Click here to have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins.
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